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Analysis: Will Palestinian U.N. Resolution Pass?

9/13/11 (AEIN) A vote on Palestinian statehood could occur as soon as late September at the U.N. General Assembly. Its approval would symbolize a major victory for the Palestinians and a defeat for Israel. Some countries have vowed to oppose the resolution or prevent the vote, while others support its approval or maintain ambiguous positions.

Along with Israel, the U.S. remains certain to oppose the resolution recognizing Palestine as an independent state. Several countries with close ties to the United States also appear likely to vote against recognition, including Canada, Great Britain, Australia and a few small Pacific islands that typically vote in favor of the U.S. It remains unclear how many will abstain as a diplomatic compromise, with consideration to public opinion and relations with Arab countries. Israeli allies Greece, Georgia and Colombia will probably oppose the resolution or abstain from voting, although there's a chance Greece will back the Palestinians under public pressure.

Particularly in Europe and Central America, many more countries have not stated clear positions on the Palestinian U.N. statehood bid. They include Germany, France, Italy, Serbia, Russia, India, Japan, South Korea, New Zealand, Costa Rica, Guatemala and Mexico. The same goes for most of the nations in Eastern Europe, Scandinavia and Central Asia. AFP recently reported that two U.S. senators (a Democrat and a Republican) have pressured Costa Rica, Colombia and Panama to oppose the resolution. Countries with neutral foreign policies such as Switzerland and Turkmenistan will likely abstain. A couple of pro-Israel African nations like Botswana or Nigeria might abstain.

Countries which have openly stated support for the Palestinian U.N. resolution include Armenia, Azerbaijan, China and Iran, among others. Malaysia's official news agency recently reported that Malaysia will vote in favor. Sri Lanka also backs the resolution, according to The Island newspaper. China Radio International reports that Slovenia will vote the same way and the Palestine News Agency recently confirmed Thailand's support. Malta, Spain, Sweden, Cyprus, Portugal and Ireland will back the resolution, according to the Times of Malta. Most Southeast Asian, African, South American and Middle Eastern countries appear likely to vote in favor of recognizing Palestinian statehood as well, including Venezuela, South Africa, Egypt and Vietnam.

With the Palestinians obtaining far more confirmed supporters, the resolution will probably pass if brought to a vote. Palestinian President Abbas recently rejected pressure to cancel the resolution, while U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon has expressed support for Palestinian statehood and allowing the vote to go through.


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